News | Sharp Decline in Global Fertility: Trends and Projections for 1950-2100
A recent study published in The Lancet found that the global total fertility rate has fallen by more than half since 1950. Researchers comprehensively estimated fertility trends in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2100 and projected future changes.
Background
Fertility assessments are essential for addressing geopolitical, environmental, economic, and social challenges arising from population aging and migration. They influence policies concerning resources and health care needs, education, labor supply, family planning, and gender equality. The United Nations Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau have updated fertility data since the 1950s, while the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital has worked with the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to develop population projections through 2100.
About the study
The study examined global fertility trends in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2021 and projected trends through 2100. Researchers analyzed GBD 2021 data, using spatiotemporal Gaussian regression and linear mixed-effects regression to estimate fertility measures from 1950 to 2021, with adjustment using fixed-effect variables including female educational attainment and met need for contraception.
Using 8,709 country-year samples and data from vital registration, censuses, 1,455 surveys, and 150 additional sources, they calculated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for five-year age groups from 10 to 54. ASFRs across ages were combined to calculate the total fertility rate (TFR). Researchers calculated the number of births by multiplying each ASFR by the female population in the corresponding age group.
Results
From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate fell from 4.8 to 2.2. Annual births peaked at 14.2 million in 2016 and declined to 12.9 million in 2021. Fertility declined in every country compared with 1950. By 2021, 94 countries, or 46.0%, still had a total fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.10. Fertility is expected to continue declining, with the global total fertility rate falling to 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100.
The study projects that the share of countries with fertility above replacement level will fall from 24% in 2050, or 49 countries, to 2.9% in 2100, or six countries, three of which are in low-income sub-Saharan Africa. By 2100, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for more than half of global births, rising from 41% in 2050 to 54%. In contrast, the shares of births in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the high-income super-region will decline.
The study also indicates that even if the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for improving access to contraception and education are achieved and pronatalist policies are implemented, the global total fertility rate would be 1.7 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100.
Conclusion
Global fertility is declining, and in 2021 more than half of countries had fertility below replacement level. This trend has continued since 2000. Although a few countries have experienced small rebounds, none has returned to replacement level. The geographic distribution of births is also shifting toward low-income countries. Despite potential pronatalist policies, fertility is expected to continue declining. These demographic changes will have far-reaching economic and social effects, including population aging and a shrinking workforce in wealthy countries and a larger share of global births in the world's poorest regions.
News | Sharp Decline in Global Fertility: Trends and Projections for 1950-2100
News | Sharp Decline in Global Fertility: Trends and Projections for 1950-2100
A recent study published in The Lancet found that the global total fertility rate has fallen by more than half since 1950. Researchers comprehensively estimated fertility trends in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2100 and projected future changes.
Background
Fertility assessments are essential for addressing geopolitical, environmental, economic, and social challenges arising from population aging and migration. They influence policies concerning resources and health care needs, education, labor supply, family planning, and gender equality. The United Nations Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau have updated fertility data since the 1950s, while the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital has worked with the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to develop population projections through 2100.
About the study
The study examined global fertility trends in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2021 and projected trends through 2100. Researchers analyzed GBD 2021 data, using spatiotemporal Gaussian regression and linear mixed-effects regression to estimate fertility measures from 1950 to 2021, with adjustment using fixed-effect variables including female educational attainment and met need for contraception.
Using 8,709 country-year samples and data from vital registration, censuses, 1,455 surveys, and 150 additional sources, they calculated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for five-year age groups from 10 to 54. ASFRs across ages were combined to calculate the total fertility rate (TFR). Researchers calculated the number of births by multiplying each ASFR by the female population in the corresponding age group.
Results
From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate fell from 4.8 to 2.2. Annual births peaked at 14.2 million in 2016 and declined to 12.9 million in 2021. Fertility declined in every country compared with 1950. By 2021, 94 countries, or 46.0%, still had a total fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.10. Fertility is expected to continue declining, with the global total fertility rate falling to 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100.
The study projects that the share of countries with fertility above replacement level will fall from 24% in 2050, or 49 countries, to 2.9% in 2100, or six countries, three of which are in low-income sub-Saharan Africa. By 2100, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for more than half of global births, rising from 41% in 2050 to 54%. In contrast, the shares of births in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the high-income super-region will decline.
The study also indicates that even if the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for improving access to contraception and education are achieved and pronatalist policies are implemented, the global total fertility rate would be 1.7 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100.
Conclusion
Global fertility is declining, and in 2021 more than half of countries had fertility below replacement level. This trend has continued since 2000. Although a few countries have experienced small rebounds, none has returned to replacement level. The geographic distribution of births is also shifting toward low-income countries. Despite potential pronatalist policies, fertility is expected to continue declining. These demographic changes will have far-reaching economic and social effects, including population aging and a shrinking workforce in wealthy countries and a larger share of global births in the world's poorest regions.
Source:
Collected online