News | Addressing the Challenge of Declining Global Fertility
A new study published in The Lancet on March 21, 2024, indicates that the world is gradually entering an era of low fertility. Although fertility rates in more than 97% of countries and territories will fall below the level needed to sustain population size by 2100, high fertility will continue to drive population growth in many low-income countries, including western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. The study notes that this "demographically divided world" will have major economic and social effects.
Led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, the study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 to assess global, regional, and national fertility trends from 1950 to 2100. In general, a country needs a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman of reproductive age to maintain long-term population replacement. TFR is the average number of children a woman would have over her reproductive years if current fertility rates remained constant.
Findings and future projections
Using new forecasting methods and data on mortality, fertility, key drivers of fertility such as educational attainment, need for modern contraception, child mortality and urbanization, and live births, researchers estimated that fertility in 155 of 204 countries and territories (76%) will be below replacement level by 2050. By 2100, that number is expected to rise to 198 of 204 countries and territories (97%). This means their populations will decline unless immigration offsets low fertility. Some policies may partly reduce the effects of low fertility by offering greater support to parents.
The findings indicate that low fertility will create major economic growth challenges in many middle- and high-income countries, with smaller workforces, larger older populations, and heavier burdens on health and social security systems. The study also projects a major shift in global birth patterns from high-income to low-income countries. In 2021, 29% of the world's babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa; by 2100, this share is expected to rise to 54%, highlighting the urgent need to improve access to modern contraception and female education in these countries.
Challenges and responses
Senior author Professor Stein Emil Vollset of IHME said, "We are experiencing enormous social change in the 21st century. The world will face a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others. While most countries face economic growth challenges from shrinking workforces and aging populations, countries with the fewest resources, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, will struggle to support the world's fastest-growing and youngest populations."
IHME co-lead author and research scientist Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee added, "These future trends in fertility and live births will completely reshape the global economy and international balance of power and will require societies to be reorganized. Global recognition of migration and aid networks will become especially important as competition for migrants to sustain economic growth intensifies."
Effects of declining global fertility
Over the past 70 years, the global total fertility rate fell from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. More than half of countries and territories, 110 of 204, had fertility below replacement level. This trend is particularly concerning in countries with fertility below 1.1, such as South Korea and Serbia. In many sub-Saharan African countries, however, fertility remains high. In 2021, the region's total fertility rate was nearly twice the global average, at four children per woman. Chad had the world's highest total fertility rate, at seven children.
Global fertility is expected to decline further in the coming decades, reaching about 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100, well below replacement level. By 2100, only six countries and territories—Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan—are expected to have fertility above 2.1.
Solutions
IHME co-lead author Dr. Austin E. Schumacher, an Acting Assistant Professor, said, "The marked future changes in fertility reveal a clear demographic divide between middle- and high-income countries and many low-income countries. Governments will need to implement safe, beneficial policies that help raise fertility in some regions and lower it in others."
In summary, the study reveals declining global fertility and its far-reaching future effects. Countries will need effective measures to promote balanced population structures and sustainable development.
News | Addressing the Challenge of Declining Global Fertility
News | Addressing the Challenge of Declining Global Fertility
A new study published in The Lancet on March 21, 2024, indicates that the world is gradually entering an era of low fertility. Although fertility rates in more than 97% of countries and territories will fall below the level needed to sustain population size by 2100, high fertility will continue to drive population growth in many low-income countries, including western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. The study notes that this "demographically divided world" will have major economic and social effects.
Led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, the study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 to assess global, regional, and national fertility trends from 1950 to 2100. In general, a country needs a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman of reproductive age to maintain long-term population replacement. TFR is the average number of children a woman would have over her reproductive years if current fertility rates remained constant.
Findings and future projections
Using new forecasting methods and data on mortality, fertility, key drivers of fertility such as educational attainment, need for modern contraception, child mortality and urbanization, and live births, researchers estimated that fertility in 155 of 204 countries and territories (76%) will be below replacement level by 2050. By 2100, that number is expected to rise to 198 of 204 countries and territories (97%). This means their populations will decline unless immigration offsets low fertility. Some policies may partly reduce the effects of low fertility by offering greater support to parents.
The findings indicate that low fertility will create major economic growth challenges in many middle- and high-income countries, with smaller workforces, larger older populations, and heavier burdens on health and social security systems. The study also projects a major shift in global birth patterns from high-income to low-income countries. In 2021, 29% of the world's babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa; by 2100, this share is expected to rise to 54%, highlighting the urgent need to improve access to modern contraception and female education in these countries.
Challenges and responses
Senior author Professor Stein Emil Vollset of IHME said, "We are experiencing enormous social change in the 21st century. The world will face a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others. While most countries face economic growth challenges from shrinking workforces and aging populations, countries with the fewest resources, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, will struggle to support the world's fastest-growing and youngest populations."
IHME co-lead author and research scientist Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee added, "These future trends in fertility and live births will completely reshape the global economy and international balance of power and will require societies to be reorganized. Global recognition of migration and aid networks will become especially important as competition for migrants to sustain economic growth intensifies."
Effects of declining global fertility
Over the past 70 years, the global total fertility rate fell from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. More than half of countries and territories, 110 of 204, had fertility below replacement level. This trend is particularly concerning in countries with fertility below 1.1, such as South Korea and Serbia. In many sub-Saharan African countries, however, fertility remains high. In 2021, the region's total fertility rate was nearly twice the global average, at four children per woman. Chad had the world's highest total fertility rate, at seven children.
Global fertility is expected to decline further in the coming decades, reaching about 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100, well below replacement level. By 2100, only six countries and territories—Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan—are expected to have fertility above 2.1.
Solutions
IHME co-lead author Dr. Austin E. Schumacher, an Acting Assistant Professor, said, "The marked future changes in fertility reveal a clear demographic divide between middle- and high-income countries and many low-income countries. Governments will need to implement safe, beneficial policies that help raise fertility in some regions and lower it in others."
In summary, the study reveals declining global fertility and its far-reaching future effects. Countries will need effective measures to promote balanced population structures and sustainable development.
Source:
Collected online